The UK has voted to leave the EU. Two seconds of watching Nigel Farage’s head bobbing tells me he’s just like our Americas states rights advocates of the GOP. The unspoken problems with less government are a tendency for little tin pot dictators to rise up being empowered by xenophobic ramblings and gain the illusion of legitimacy with an intimidated public.
This won’t be little Asian guys in uniforms and sunglasses that Chuck Norris can vaporize with just a look but the faces you see every day who promise power through their supposed strength which will turn the world upside down in an effort to keep their right side up. For example, I would point to Kim Davis who refused to perform her elected duties based on religious objections claiming she answered to a higher power than the state.
The New World Order might not be the monolithic one world government that Alex Jones and the conspiracy heads constantly warn about. It appears more like this fragmentation into many sovereign states that will eschew public safety for corporate greed by using the illusion of democracy such as in Flint Michigan or Gov. Sam Brownbacks disastrous bankruptcy of the state of Kansas.
Being sovereign is taken as you don’t have to obey regulations that get in the way of profit which is the only measure we seem to have these days about the goal of civilization. From there it becomes easier to stop obeying your own laws and principles because you break them to defend your homeland. You can break them with impunity both inside and out under this disguise of patriotism and yet still maintain yourself defined righteousness because the rest of the world is ignorant to your glory.
Oceania is born.…
ThomasHCrown on Twitter captures brilliantly the dynamics at play with the GOP con man.
So a lot of people don’t have much experience with real estate developers. Donald Trump is basically a walking cliche. I’ll explain.
First, remember that at a certain scale, developers aren’t pitching land or location. They’re pitching themselves.
What this means is that as far as their mouths are concerned, they always produce fantastic improvement and they always have giant wallets.
Their first job is to get investors to buy into them their vision, their capability, their magic. They sell themselves first and always.
But the next developer who doesn’t hit a snag will be the first. Trump has hit a lot of snags in his life.
So Trump falls back on one of the traditional escape routes: Make this all about the investors and not him.
This works more often with sophisticated investors than you’d think because they are still composed of humans.
So the problem isn’t the project and never the developer, it’s a lack of investment, a stingy attitude, pick your horse-hockey.
If you won’t back this project enough to get over the ordinary bumps, ILL DO IT MYSELF.
Invariably, when you hear that, it means a few things.
(1) The project is in danger.
(2) There’s no easy way out.
(3) The developer is thin.
Having represented more than a few developers and banks, I’ve gotten to see this in real time and forensically. It’s a cliche.
Now, the next step when the investors don’t immediately fall for this garbage is something showy to prove the dude still can throw.
Maybe he puts $1m of his own money (NOTE FACE VALUE; $200M; PERSONAL GUARANTY) down to show he’s not afraid to commit.
The likelihood of that million ever showing up is roughly half.
The point isn’t to cover 1/12 of the shortfall. It’s to convince the investors that the brave developer sees a bright light ahead.
Why else would he have invested [$1M/the first tranche of $250K] if not?
This is in itself a surprisingly effective tactic, which is to say, it sometimes works at all.
Rational humans recognize what a sunk cost is. Trump, like most developers, is betting that he’s not dealing with that kind of human.
A lot of [bankers/investors/elderly/middle-aged marks] will be moved both by the personal investment and sunk costs and double down.
This gives the developer room to do one of three things.
(1) Structure for bankruptcy/exit.
(2) Turn it around.
(3) Keep screwing up.
Remember: At this point, his goal isn’t seeing the project to a successful conclusion. That would be great, but it’s not his goal.
It’s to stay alive and keep himself viable for the next project.
If you step back and look, he’s saying that if you won’t give him money, he’ll give himself money and you won’t be part of him.
That’s the real tell: This isn’t about paying the note or mitigating damage. It’s about him. It’s always about him.
We are at that stage with Donald Trump now.
Mr. Trump is falling back on his playbook because he invested in a bad project and got a lot of marks to buy in with him.
He may or may not launch his own Hannity News Channel, he may or may not do anything, in particular, the rest of the race.
What I guaran-damn-tee he’s not going to do is liquidate $750M of his own assets in a fire sale and push through to the end.
As far as he’s concerned, that’s our job.
This, right here, is what’s so depressing about the Trump phenomenon. It’s just a mixed-use project in a far outlying county.
The whole project was sold on the idea that people would go out of their way to exist around something they never wanted anyway.
Our nominally expert-level political class was outpaced and outmaneuvered by a penny-ante real estate developer on autopilot.
This proves either that they’re not controlled by bankers (who know this game) or that they’re just really bad bankers themselves.
So now we have to somehow get a 1/3-done shopping center to market for the big season because foreclosure ain’t gonna do jack.
And the developer has already structured himself to file a Chapter 7, skip the guaranty, and still own his yacht.
Of course, the shopping center/condo complex is three counties away from the nearest major suburb and there are no roads to the site.
So even if we get the thing built up, the locals don’t want it and can’t afford it, there are no anchor tenants and no accessibility.
The only bright spot: Sean Hannity will TOTALLY buy one of those condos.…